Questions pile up concerning the death of Hakimullah Mehsud

Reports continue to circulate claiming that Hakimullah Mehsud, the current leader of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan), is dead after suffering wounds from a mid-January drone strike. Several Pakistani officials have claimed that Mehsud had died sometime at the end of January based on "word of mouth" (aka HUMINT) confirmation, according to a report today from ABC News. However, US intelligence officials have yet to confirm the EKIA reports and the TTP was quick to issue a statement denying the death of their leader. According to Bill Roggio at the Long War Journal, reports of Mehsud's death are premature. Hakimullah's spokesman (Azam Tariq) issued a statement saying, "Hakimullah is alive and safe." Additionally, one of Mehsud's subordinate commanders, and a potential successor, (Qari Hussein Mehsud) called the Pakistani press to issue a similar statement.

For further background on Mehsud and the key role he plays within TTP, check out JD's excellent profile here and this article from the CTC Sentinel.

If in fact the reports are true, we are likely to see another potential struggle over who would take over leadership of the TTP (similar to the reported infighting that occurred after the August 2009 death of the former TTP leader, Baitullah Mehsud). The top three contenders to assume the key role include:

• Wali-ur-Rehman, the young deputy leader who functions as the group's operational commander



• 
  



• Qari Hussein, who oversees the suicide bomb program and is Hakimullah's cousin



• 
  



• Saeed Khan Mamozai, a local commander from Orakzai tribal agency

Pakistan

The leader of the Pakistani Taliban in the Swat Valley has been surrounded and will be captured by Pakistani security forces, Interior Minister Rehman Malik said on 13 September,

The Khaleej Times

reported. Malik said in a meeting with Pashtun tribal leaders that with Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah surrounded, the core of the Taliban insurgency has been destroyed.

Other Pakistani news services reported Fazlullah agreed to surrender rather than be captured or killed. The significance of this is difficult to relate to the larger issue of the stability of North West Frontier Provinc3e. Pakistani authorities have declared an end to the fighting or victory over the Pak Taliban so often that no official statements should be credited until the authorities produce results.

In other words, how many times will Swat District have to be conquered after this latest “break through?” And what is going on in Waziristan and the other tribal agencies that are not being reported.  Looks like the Swat Islamist resistance has made the Pakistan Army decide it has no stomach for counterinsurgency operations.

Saudi Arabia

Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula has threatened attacks to follow a failed August suicide bomb that targeted the deputy interior minister,

Agence France-Presse

reported 22 September. In a video posted online, leader Abu Baseer al Wuhayshi said: "By Allah, they will climb your walls and will come to you from where you do not expect."
 
This is the portent of another Saudi crackdown. The so-called sophistication of the Islamic extremists in using the Web also tends to place a bull’s eye on their foreheads, at least in Saudi Arabia. The irony of Saudi Arabia is similar to the US in that some people who benefit most from the protections of the state openly advocate the destruction of that state. That is suicidal and insane... it is also tiresomely trite in the history of revolutions.